Ireland’s Electricity Grid Gears Up for Winter 2025-26
As the colder months approach, Ireland’s grid operator EirGrid has published its annual Winter Outlook, covering the period from 3 November 2025 to 5 April 2026, and the findings bring welcome reassurance: the risk of supply shortages is significantly lower than in recent years.
Improved Security of Supply
The heartening headline is that the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) for this winter is forecast at just 1.1 hours — meaning that over this five-month period the modelled hours during which generation might fail to meet demand are very low. That figure is comfortably within the three-hour annual standard set for Ireland, and much improved on recent years (3.6 hours last winter, 21 hours the winter prior).
This improvement is due to a combination of measures:
The completion of the 500 MW Greenlink interconnector between Ireland and Britain, enhancing import capacity.
The continued deployment of temporary emergency generation (TEG) and retained existing units (REU) under the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU)’s Security of Supply programme.
The addition of new gas-fired “peaker” plants and battery storage to the system via the capacity market.
Demand, Imports and Alert Risks
On the demand side, EirGrid expects a median peak of around 6,044 MW this winter — a touch higher than last year’s record 6,024 MW. Cold weather remains a driver: for every 1 °C drop in temperature, peak demand rises by roughly 55 MW.
While the risk of a full-scale outage is low, EirGrid notes that the system may occasionally enter an “Alert” or Amber state — particularly during periods of low wind generation and limited interconnector imports. Importantly, protocols with large energy users are in place so that the impact on households and businesses in such events is minimised.
Grid Resilience and Wider Measures
Beyond generation adequacy, the resilience of the transmission and distribution network is also being boosted. For example, the ESB Networks Winter 2025 Grid Resilience Plan — requiring enhanced forestry corridor clearance, spare-parts stockpiling and other preventative measures — was announced by government to address storm-related vulnerabilities.
Additionally, the Government has committed to investing in electricity infrastructure: under the National Development Plan, around €3.5 billion will be allocated for grid upgrade and transmission expansion in the period 2026-2030 — reinforcing long-term winter readiness and energy security.
Outlook for Businesses and Consumers
Eirgrid’s latest outlook sends a strong signal: Ireland is improving it’s electricity security and is prepared for the winter strain. The improved reliability of the grid supports confidence in energy-intensive operations and infrastructure planning. For households and smaller enterprises, the message is reassuring: while weather (cold snaps) will always raise demand, the likelihood of a supply emergency is now much reduced.
In short: For winter 2025-26, Ireland’s grid is ready and resilient, backed by strengthened interconnection, generation capacity, storage and network investment. The margin for error remains tight, but the system is set to perform well even under challenging conditions.
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