Eirgrid’s Capacity Outlook from 2022-2031

Eirgrid have been forecasting shortfalls in Ireland’s electricity generation capacity for more than six years already, and the outlook has been described as “challenging” out to 2031, nine years from now.

Fifteen years seems a long time to be shoring up deficits, even in a market with such long lead times.

It’s a question of simple maths. Electricity demand is increasing, is forecast to increase, and will also increase beyond the known variables. Electricity production is not being replaced faster than it is being retired, and the net sum is negative for the foreseeable future.

Emergency actions are being implemented.

Solar PV Solar Now — Ireland’s Electricity Grid has capacity deficits out to 2031 .

The deficit approaches a whopping 1500 MW for most of this decade.

The result will be frequent system alerts, with potential blackouts, brownouts, or electricity rationing, along with a significantly altered tariff system.

On the one hand the EPA is telling everyone to switch everything to electric, and on the other hand the Utilities Regulator, TSO and DSO are grooming everyone to “use less” electricity. These are incompatible and conflicting ideologies.

Generation Capacity Statement 2022 – 2031

The Generation Capacity Statement for 2022 is not shy about highlighting risks associated with the Irish electricity system for the foreseeable future.

– Ten years of capacity deficits are forecast, where deficits increase for several years before they begin to decrease marginally.

– Increasing certainty of system alerts

– Further permanent or enduring generation capacity is required, in addition to short term emergency generation capacity.

– A “balanced portfolio” is required (which for Eirgrid means gas generation, a figure of +2,000 MW of “renewable gas ready” generation by 2030 is mentioned)

– 631 MW of previously awarded capacity has now withdrawn and terminated from the market. (including 365 MW terminated in the last 12 months)

– Excessively high pricing has reduced average demand by 124 MW during the Winter of 2022-2023. The figure is stated as if maintaining extortionate pricing is a policy decision designed to protect the grid. In reality, this 124 MW translates to older people and poorer families unable to heat their homes, not using appliances or simply not using electricity in the Winter where temperatures reached minus 10 degrees Celsius in parts of Ireland.

– Large Energy Users, including Data Centres, hold 2,300 MW of generation capacity under contract. However, only about one-third is currently being consumed, and while existing Data Centre usage may increase a further 1,400 MW by 2031, the total equates to an overall allocation of 2,000 MW for existing Data Centres or New Tech Large Energy Users.

The summary forecasts “strong growth” or “continued growth” from existing, ie contracted Data Centres.

At the same time residential usage, commercial usage and ordinary industrial usage are all predicted to remain virtually stable out to 2031. For some reason Eirgrid expects no additional housing, no additional population growth, no additional commercial activity and no increased industrial output in the next ten year period.

Something is missing from the analysis here.

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Climate Action Plan

The Capacity Statement includes models of Electricity Generation vs the targets set out in the Climate Action Plan from 2021.

Under the Climate Action Plan (CAP), Ireland’s electricity generation (consumption) is predicted to grow to approximately 40 to 50 TWh – depending on whether the CAP targets are partially or fully met.

The conservative forecast predicts an increase of 37% by 2031.

This model includes a future 28% total allocation to Data Centres and New Large Energy Users. Eirdgrid’s analysis is predicting that EV’s, heatpumps and existing Data Centres will consume the vast majority of our increased or additional electricity generation out to 2031.

However this prediction does not include any new or additional data centres which will be required to provide their own dispatchable power and/or storage.

The residential portion of the forecast (excluding heatpumps and EV’s) is predicted to remain completely stable until 2031. It’s a sad indictment that Eirgrid doesn’t expect any new housing to be built over the next decade across the whole island of Ireland, while the EPA on the other hand is expecting around 680,000 heatpumps to be installed somewhere.

Again, something seems lacking in the analysis.

Solar Solutions to Electricity Deficits

As a home or business owner your priority will be to protect your home or business from the effects of a tightening energy market with persistently high prices maintained to reflect years and years of poor decision making or under-investment in critical infrastructure.

Eirgrid’s Generation Capacity Statement 2022-2031 is clear on the issues. In a nutshell, Ireland has a “significant need” for “a great deal of new grid infrastructure” – cables, pylons and substations.

Challenging times are ahead, and for us the best solution is a solar solution.

Solar PV provides the best route to energy independence for homeowners, businesses, towns and also countries.